Differences between Actual, Theoretical and Expected RTP’s

Differences between Actual, Theoretical and Expected RTP’s 1d4qj

Andjelka Ostojic
Updated March 14, 2025
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RTP or Return to Player is often listed as part of game data for every online casino game. No matter what online casino game you are playing, you should know what the RTP is for that game.

However, there are different ways to tell the RTP rate of the game. For the sake of this article, there are three different types: theoretical, expected, and actual RTP.

This guide will show the three different types of RTP that you will come across in the casino and how to calculate RTP.

What Is RTP? 4w6g14

RTP is short for Return to Player.

The Return to Player is a term used in gambling to refer to the percentage that will be returned to the players from the stakes they placed on a casino game. Essentially, it’s how much you can expect to return to you as winnings based on how much you invested, but long-term, not only during just one game session.

As such, it’s an important detail that players should have in mind when they start playing a game. Some games, usually table games, have more or less stable RTP rates, like roulette. European Roulette always has 97.30% RTP, with the exception of some variants that feature special bonus rounds, which affect gameplay and therefore RTP.

In slots, the situation is a bit different. All slots have unique RTP rates, because game elements like reels, paylines, and bonus rounds affect RTP as well. Hence, it’s common for slot games to have RTP rates listed.

Therefore, it’s important to compare RTP rates and stick to games with higher RTPs to ensure you are playing games where the chance to get a solid payout is better.

How to Calculate RTP 353c28

For most games, the RTP is already listed, so there is no need to calculate it on your own.

However, not all providers list RTP for their games, even though it is preferred. Still, there is a formula for calculating RTP (which is mostly used by game suppliers before the game is even launched).

The RTP in casino games is calculated by dividing the total amount of money won by players by the total amount gambled over a period of time.

In other words, the entire sum of money that the game has paid out is divided by the entire sum of money that was staked into the game. Here’s a short version of the formula:

 

Wins / total wagers x 100 = RTP (expressed in percentages). 2m1q4j

 

An important thing to note is that it says ‘total amount’ and ‘over a period of time’. That means that it does not simply include one gaming session where you played 50 spins, but rather the entire period of time, since the game’s launch.

That is why calculating RTP is difficult in real time for regular players. Instead, it is much easier to rely on game reviews from experts who understand how games work on a deeper level.

Now, games may also have three different variations for RTP rates. There are theoretical, expected, and actual RTP rates to consider.

Theoretical RTP 6c154

The theoretical RTP rate is the long-term RTP set by the game developer. It’s usually included in the game’s paytable. It’s also always expressed as a percentage.

The theoretical rate represents the amount of money a player can expect to win back over an infinite number of spins.

For example, if an online slot game has a 96% RTP, this means that, on average, the game will return $96 for every $100 that is wagered over time.

It’s the basic way to find out just how much money you are going to get back – in theory. When calculating the RTP, developers take into things such as the total number of possible winning combinations that can be formed by players playing that game and their respective winning payouts attached to each of those winning combinations.

Game reviewers use this rate as the starting point, and it is this rate that is listed in reviews most often.

Summary: Theoretical RTP is calculated using mathematical models and simulations over millions or billions of spins.

Expected RTP g6g64

The theoretical RTP rate refers to the RTP a player can anticipate or expect based on the gaming session they are playing. It’s the return expected over one complete game cycle of that particular casino game.

But since players typically play a limited number of spins (50, 100, or more) the RTP they experience may not match the theoretical RTP exactly.

That is why expected RTP is not always the same as theoretical RTP (although in some cases, they may match). This rate is influenced by variance (volatility) and can be much higher or lower than the theoretical RTP in the short run.

Summary: Expected RTP is what a player can realistically see during a specific session. However, it's still based on probability rather than actual results.

Actual RTP j133j

Even though a game is going to display an RTP, the actual RTP you achieve on any session of any game you choose to play is going to vary on each session.

Actual RTP refers to the real RTP calculated based on the actual play history of a game in a specific casino.

So, if the theoretical RTP is 96% and the player wagers $100, they are not realistically going to get $96 back. The actual RTP percentage will be much different, and the payout will be different even if they have multiple gaming sessions.

In other words, it represents the percentage of wagers that are returned to players over a certain period.

But actual RTP is based on real-world play, so it can fluctuate significantly, especially for new games or games that are not very popular with the players.

Summary: Actual RTP can be higher or lower than theoretical RTP in the short term but should eventually match the theoretical RTP after millions of spins.

Can RTP Be Over 100%? 5f40c

Although no actual game has listed a 100% or more RTP, some players have noticed that it is possible to exceed that amount (at least, in theory).

Realistically, the RTP rate you can expect to have in a game can be much lower than the theoretical or even expected rate that the game has listed. But, in situations where players enter the game, play a couple of rounds and hit a jackpot, and then end the session, their actual RTP of that specific cycle is over 100% = because what they won exceeds what they’ve invested.

It's simple as that.

However, this is very rare, and not at all something you can expect to see in everyday life. Also, some players and rogue casinos may promote RTP that is over 100% which may attract players.

But, if the players start playing and notice that they are not hitting a jackpot or getting more than they invested, they can be motivated to keep gambling until they hit a big win that is supposed to compensate for what they’ve invested.

This is a harmful practice and not at all in accordance with responsible gaming practices we promote at CasinosOnline.

Here is a table showing the main differences between the three types of RTP rates.

RTP Type Definition Based on Short-Term Variation
Theoretical RTP Expected return over infinite spins Math models & simulations No
Expected RTP Predicted rate based on a single session Probability & variance Yes
Actual RTP Rate based on real gameplay data Real-world results from gameplay Yes

Fixed vs Variable RTP 1u561j

New games, especially new online slots, sometimes may list multiple RTP rates. These are all theoretical RTPs. They are the opposite of fixed RTP rates that most casino games have.

Fixed RTP rates are games that have a set RTP rate that does not change no matter where you play the game. It remains the same regardless of the chosen casino or time of day. Most games have a fixed rate.

On the other hand, a growing number of games now feature multiple rates, which offer different payout percentages. It is not odd to see different payouts for different RTP rates.

Moreover, games with Buy Bonus options may have different RTP rates (and payouts) with and without the Buy Bonus option, as the functionality is not available in all markets.

Game suppliers allow operators to choose the RTP variant they want to implement in their lobbies. Therefore, it is important to check the RTP of the game before playing, especially if the game has RTP variants. Sometimes, the highest rate might be promoted, but that does not guarantee that that version is being used.

Pragmatic Play and Quickspin are some of the game suppliers which frequently introduce multiple RTP variants for their new releases.

Summary 4h2i4j

Players who prefer table games are less likely to encounter issues with RTP as most table games – both in RNG and live casino mode – tend to have fixed rates that rarely change. The exception are games with bonus rounds, but they often highlight the rate as a way to be more transparent towards the players.

If you play slots, make sure to check the rate you are getting in your casino. And of course, try to play slots with the highest RTP rate possible.

Here are some examples:

Further Reading 555n4v

Here are some helpful articles you might find useful if you want to learn more about casino game RTP and other game data.

ABOUT ANDJELKA OSTOJIC 5v1g2d

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Thanks to her keen eye for details and dedication to keeping her finger on the pulse of iGaming, our Editor-in-Chief Andjelka has ensured CasinosOnline remains a trusted source of unbiased and right information in the industry.

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